Human capital

How many people will live in Nur-Sultan by 2050?

Labour Resources Development Center experts conclude that in 30 years a population of Kazakhstan will be over 24 million people, with 9 million residing in the three major cities, as long as the rates of birth and death remain at the previous year’s level. Such a conclusion was drawn based on the information presented by the Kazakh National Economy Ministry.
Nur-Sultan15 August , 13:02

Official data indicate as of 1 July this year a population of Kazakhstan stood at 18.5 million people, increasing by some 112 thousand people since the year’s beginning. 

Urbanization is forging ahead throughout the country. Urban areas account for 74.3% of the population growth during the half-year period (early 2019 – 58.2%). It is due to out-migration a rural population grew by a low number of 29 thousand people. Since the start of the year, there has been a shortfall of rural-urban migration of 23 thousand people though a natural growth of 52 thousand people.

Three major Kazakh cities, Almaty, Nur-Sultan and Shymkent, are home to 22% of the population, this figure can reach up to 47.5% provided the adjacent regions (Almaty, Akmola and Turkestan) are taken.

Analytics from the Labour Resources Development Center estimate that with the rates of birth and death remaining at the previous year’s level and the migration flows on 5-year mean values, the annual average number of Kazakhstan’s population will exceed 20 million people by 2027, and will near 24.5 million people by 2050.

“At this rate, by 2050 the population of Nur-Sultan will reach some 3.1 million people, a 194% growth compared to 2018, getting close to another megapolis – Almaty, where the number of residents is expected to near 3.3 million people by the same year, increasing by 82%. The population of the third Kazakh city – Shymkent – is forecasted to grow to 2.6 million people, or by 167% by 2050,” Dmitry Shumekov, Director, Department of Labour Resources Forecasting, said.

He also noted that among the country’s regions a rapid population growth is projected in the oil producing regions. Analytics believe that by 2050 Mangistau region will be home to nearly 1 million 360 thousand people (in 2018 – 669.3 thousand people), in Atyrau region – 1.1 million people (in 2018 – 627.2 thousand people).

“The population increase is uneven. By 2050 the combined number of residents of five regions (Akmola, Karaganda, Pavlodar, Northern and Eastern Kazakhstan regions) will shrink to 1.3 million people, or by 24% compared to the 2018 level. During the first six months of the present year alone the population of these regions has reduced by 8.3 thousand people, and the number of those left has bypassed that of those arrived by 21.4 thousand. Taking into consideration that among those migrating persons aged 20-30 prevail, acceleration in further reduction through the falling level of natural growth is around the corner”, Dmitry Shumekov added.

He also stressed that the population of women aged 20-29 will greatly reduce in years to come due to a fall in births in the late 1990s and the early 2000s. So, in 2018 their number was 1.4 million people and by 2025 this figure could reduce to 1.1 million people. That will slow down the population increase.

However it is pertinent to point out that this forecast is a look back, and be doomed to failure due to a broader range of factors. 

In June 1999 the Kazakh Government issued an edict establishing the Public Utilities Company “The Information Analysis Employment Center under the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan”. Later it was restructured into Joint-stock company “The Labour Resources Development Center” by the Government Decree of 1 July 2016.

The Center’s activity mainly focuses on providing the information and analytical support of the State policy in regulating the labour market and carrying out robust measures to promote employment, methodological support to local executive bodies on employment and employment centers.